Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
